WTI Crude Oil Futures (March) 

Friday’s Settlement: 77.88 down -0.80 [ -1.02%], up +2.05 [+2.71%] for the week   

WTI Crude Oil futures recorded their fourth straight week of gains last week as new U.S. sanctions threatened close to 1 million bpd of supply. Tanker rates skyrocketed as importers scrambled for cargo within a new, smaller fleet of unsanctioned vessels.    

Today, futures are lower by -0.86 [-1.06%] to 76.55  

Today is inauguration day, as well as Martin Luther King Jr. day; U.S. equity and bond markets are closed for the holiday. 

Futures are trading lower this morning after a Wall Street Journal article was released saying that the Trump administration will not implement tariffs on day one. The administration instead will study trade relations with each individual country and will review section 232 tariffs. 

WTI Crude Oil futures dropped close to $1 on the release of this article as the U.S. dollar dropped sharply. 

Technical Analysis:

With the Trump inauguration and limited holiday liquidity, volatility will likely be amplified today. This morning’s trade is already showing this to be the case. Aggressive positioning is cautioned against as headlines will likely whipsaw this market in either direction.

Friday’s settlement above our major three-star support level of 76.93-77.04*** kept futures in a consolidating pattern. Today, futures are trading below that level and nearing support at 76.16***.

Again,  we caution against aggressive positioning in either direction in the first few days of the trump administration as headlines are likely to whipsaw this market. Risk management will be key in the first few months of the new administration as markets readjust to the new administration.

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