Ventas Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

Chicago-based Ventas, Inc. (VTR) is a leading real estate investment trust focused on delivering strong, sustainable shareholder returns by enabling exceptional environments that benefit a large and growing aging population. With a market cap of $29.8 billion, Ventas operates numerous senior housing communities, providing valuable services to residents.
The senior housing giant has significantly outpaced the broader market over the past year. VTR stock has soared 38.8% over the past 52 weeks and 12.1% on a YTD basis, outpacing the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 8.6% gains over the past year and 3.8% decline in 2025.
Narrowing the focus, VTR has also outpaced the industry-focused iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF’s (USRT) 8.6% returns over the past 52 weeks and 1.1% dip on a YTD basis.

Despite delivering solid financials, Ventas’ stock prices dropped 6.5% in the trading session after the release of its Q1 results on Apr. 30. Continuing its elongated multiyear ride on the senior housing growth trend, the company delivered a solid 13.6% year-over-year growth in same-store cash NOI. Meanwhile, its overall revenue surged 13.2% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, exceeding the Street’s expectations. Moreover, its normalized funds from operations (NFFO) surged 19% year-over-year to $376.7 million.
However, due to a sharp increase in outstanding dilutive shares, its NFFO per share increased by a much more modest 7.7% year-over-year to $0.84. Meanwhile, showcasing confidence in its operations, Ventas raised its senior housing investment volume for 2025 from the previously announced $1 billion to $1.5 billion. However, these incremental investments will be funded from a mix of asset disposition proceeds and equity, which will lead to further dilution for current shareholders.
For the current FY 2025, VTR is expected to deliver a 7.5% year-over-year growth in NFFO per share to $3.43. The company has a solid NFFO surprise history. It has surpassed the Street’s NFFO per share estimates in each of the past four quarters.
VTR stock holds a consensus “Strong Buy” rating overall. Of the 20 analysts covering the stock, opinions include 14 “Strong Buys,” two “Moderate Buys,” and four “Holds.”

This configuration is slightly more bullish than three months ago, when the stock had 13 “Strong Buy” recommendations.
On May 7, RBC Capital analyst Michael Carroll maintained an “Outperform” rating on VTR, while raising the price target to $75.
As of writing, Ventas’ mean price target of $75.84 represents a 14.9% premium to current price levels. While its street-high target of $84 suggests a 27.3% upside potential.
On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.