Risk-tolerant speculators interested in a high-risk, high-reward opportunity may want to set their sights on technology company Zeta Global (ZETA). A data-driven, cloud-based marketing technology which empowers enterprises to acquire, grow and retain customers, Zeta’s flagship product represents one of the marketing industry’s largest proprietary databases. As enticing as its business model may be, ZETA stock is choppy, suffering a 16.51% year-to-date loss. Still, quantitative signals suggest a turnaround may be coming.

First, on a fundamental note, Zeta draws both intrigue and perhaps a touch of spiciness thanks to the company’s co-founding by John Sculley. The former Apple (AAPL) CEO notoriously fired Steve Jobs, although it’s much more accurate to state that Sculley orchestrated a boardroom showdown that led to Jobs’ downfall — an incident that he later regretted. Still, Sculley’s leadership and diverse experience may provide compelling clout for prospective investors.

Second and more importantly, Zeta leverages artificial intelligence and predictive analytics for audience targeting and campaign optimization. This deep-targeting capacity enables personalized customer journeys at scale, which may become increasingly valuable due to access of third-party data becoming increasingly restricted. Further, Zeta’s omnichannel architecture consolidates various tools into one cohesive system.

Despite the wildness of ZETA stock, analysts rate the underlying company as a Moderate Buy. This assessment breaks down as nine Strong Buys, two Moderate Buys and four Holds. Currently, the experts’ consensus price target stands at $24.77, which implies about a 65% lift from current levels.

Lastly, options flow — which focuses exclusively on big block transactions likely placed by institutional investors — shows net trade sentiment following Wednesday’s close at $465,500 above parity, favoring the bulls. While the single-largest transaction was for sold puts, in terms of transactional count, debit-based calls dominated proceedings. This dynamic indicates confidence in the upward trajectory of ZETA stock.

Building a Strategy for ZETA Stock Using Statistical Analysis

Although the fundamental factors and options flow activities represent intriguing talking points, they lack specificity. As options traders, it’s not enough to have an idea about the trajectory of the target asset (y-axis). Rather, it’s also critical for the thesis to materialize within the allotted time period (x-axis) as all options eventually expire.

In other words, traders live in a world of probabilities, which requires the use of statistical analysis. At first glance, this exercise seems simple enough: just take the frequency of the desired outcome divided by the total number of events in the dataset. However, this approach only calculates the derivative probability or the outcome odds over the entire dataset’s distribution.

What we’re looking for? Conditional probabilities — outcome odds of a specific subset within the data.

Whenever an airplane crashes, journalists are usually quick to point out that statistically, air travel is one of the safest modes of transportation. While that’s true, this is an insight based on the aggregate experience of all passengers. However, if you board a plane with an inebriated pilot, your conditional probability of something terrible happening accelerates exponentially.

It’s the same principle with ZETA stock where, based on its quantitative framework, the security has a higher chance of a bullish move in the near term over its baseline probability. But to make such an assertion, the underlying data must speak a unified language. This is the reason why I’ve been focusing on market breadth or sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions.

Market breadth is effectively binary, which lends itself to categorization and quantification. These attributes form the backbone of distinct past analogs, which can then be utilized for probabilistic analysis.

Currently, ZETA stock is charting a 6-4-U sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, with a net positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Admittedly, converting the past two months’ price action into a simple binary code compresses ZETA’s magnitude dynamism. However, the benefit is that demand profiles can be categorized into discrete behavioral states. From here, we can calculate the odds of transition from one state to another.

For example, whenever the 6-4-U sequence flashes, there’s a 58.33% chance that the following week’s price action will result in upside, with a median return (assuming the positive pathway) of 3.67%. Should the bulls maintain control of the market into the second week, ZETA could rise another 1.08% based on past analogs.

Aggressive Trades to Consider for Zeta Global

Based on the market intelligence above, arguably the most rational debit spread with the highest payout is the 14.50/15.50 bull call spread expiring July 18. This transaction involves buying the $14.50 call and simultaneously selling the $15.50 call, for a net debit paid of $55 (the most that can be lost in the trade). Should ZETA stock rise through the short strike price ($15.50) at expiration, the maximum reward is $45, a payout of nearly 82%.

Those who are willing to take a leap of faith, so to speak, may consider the 15/16 bull spread, also expiring July 18. Here, the net debit is a little bit cheaper at $45. If ZETA stock rises through the short strike at expiration, the maximum reward is $55, a payout of over 122%.

What’s attractive here is the implied shift in sentiment regime of the 6-4-U sequence. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in ZETA stock will be profitable is 55.66%. With the flashing of the aforementioned sequence, the bulls enjoy a small but tangible boost in favorable odds, thus statistically incentivizing speculation.